Matchups
Uros Medic
13-3-0 · UFC 8-3 · Elo 1823
Pressure FinisherWLWWW
VS
Daniel Rodriguez
20-5-0 · UFC 11-4 · Elo 1935
Volume Point-StrikerLLWWW
Welterweight · 5 rounds · Saturday, August 1st · lines: DraftKings
76%Betting market · implied win %24%
Elo model: Daniel Rodriguez 58% · context, not a bet
Medic (red)Rodriguez (blue)green = statistical edge
Model Projections
Stat model — not a betting line
60%Win probability40%
Medic
Takedowns exp 0.5
Sig strikes exp 75
29 – 47 – 121
Rodriguez
Takedowns exp 0.5
Sig strikes exp 63
14 – 47 – 121
DFS projection
floor · median · ceiling (DK pts)
Pressure Finisher
64106164
GPP / ceilingcomps W 55% · fin 25% · mkt 76%
$9.4k · 11.3 pts/$1k
recent DK1041102104104
Volume Point-Striker
3451106
Balanced⚠ bust riskcomps W 52% · fin 12% · mkt 24%
$6.8k · 7.6 pts/$1k
recent DK352878294
median of 22 / 27 comparable past fights · floor/ceiling = 25th/90th pct
Keys to the Fight
Striker vs Striker
Uros Medic is the 76% market favorite, leading in gets hit less & finishing ability. Likely ends inside the distance.
Where it's fought
StandingGround
How it ends
FinishDecision
13% to decision (market)
🥊Daniel Rodriguez controls the striking volume (7.20 vs 5.59 landed/min), though Uros Medic is the more accurate striker (60%).
🪜Tougher schedule: Daniel Rodriguez has faced stiffer competition (avg recent opponent ~1856 vs 1702) — résumé context, not a bet.
⏳Daniel Rodriguez is 39 (6y older than Uros Medic) — watch for late-career decline, especially deep into the fight.
Market favors Uros Medic; the stat edges are split.
Expected vs this opponent
career → matchup-adjusted
Uros Medic
vs Rodriguez
Striking /min 5.1 ↑ 5.8
Takedowns /15 0.4 → 0.4
Control 4%
Daniel Rodriguez
vs Medic
Striking /min 7.2 → 7.2
Takedowns /15 0.2 ↑ 0.3
Control 5%
Common opponents
MedicRodriguez
W KO R1 · Apr '24Tim MeansW SUB R2 · Feb '20
How each fared against a shared opponent (most-recent meeting) — may include non-UFC bouts.
Style fingerprint
Uros MedicDaniel Rodriguez
Each axis is scaled 0–100 (striking & takedown volume are capped, so a maxed spoke isn’t a fixed number) — hover a point for the raw stat.
Head-to-head
Physical
71"
Reach
74"
33
Age
39
Betting market (implied %)
41%
Win by dec
5%
35%
Win by fin
19%
21%
R1 win
8%
Striking & grappling shape is in the radar above; full per-stat numbers in the Tale-of-the-tape.
How fights end
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Uros Medic 13-3
W11 KO · 2 sub
L1 KO · 2 sub
Daniel Rodriguez 20-5
W9 KO · 4 sub · 7 dec
L1 KO · 1 sub · 3 dec